If you're an avid reader of my blog you know I haven't had much confidence in the new version of Forex Autopilot. I was burned on the original version and brushed the new one off as more of the same. I have now compiled over 2 months of demo data and am compared to make a prediction: The new Forex Autopilot ROCKS!! From 9/4/08 to 11/11/08 the trading robot racked up over 4,400 pips. Here is the actual demo statement.
Here are a few tips to keep in mind if you plan to run the FAP on a live account:
1. Practice proper money management. My maximum drawdown has been 1,500 pips on a 1 mini-lot per trade, 2 max trades, account. I would recommend a $3,000 starting balance for a 1-mini lot setting. If I started with a live account of $3,000 on 9/4/08 my current balance would be $7,366, a 146% ROI.
2. Let the EA do its thing. Once you tamper with trades you are undermining the purpose of having a trading robot. If you're like me you'll check your trades about once an hour and freak out at the first sign of a loss. You need to keep a cool head. I don't recommend checking your account more than a couple times a week.
3. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. None of us can predict the future so be prepared to lose a substantial amount and if you can't handle that concept don't risk it.
4. Use a Virtual Private Server for trading. This ensures that you don't have to worry about your computer crashing.
Til next time,
Craig
Showing posts with label Forex Autopilot. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Forex Autopilot. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Saturday, October 11, 2008
Forex Autopilot / Wizard / Sports Betting Champ Update 10/11/08
Happy Saturday Everybody!
I have an exciting progress report from my Forex Autopilot demo account. The account is set up with default settings (2 max trades). Take a look. Yes, you read it correctly, 2,060 pips from 9/4/08 to 10/10/08 with only one 60 pip losing trade! Your first thought might be "Craig, it's time to close the blog because you just found the Holy Grail!"; however, there's one important tidbit that you can't see from the statement. At one point, the FAP was floating two losing trades with total negative pips of roughly 1,500. That's an amount that could blow out an account that isn't using proper money management! I thought the FAP would close out a huge loss at the end of September but thanks to the crumbling U.S. economy, the trend reversed and the month was saved. So here are my thoughts: You can't take away the fact that the EA closed an astonishing amount of pips in just over a month; however, I do think these are extraordinary times. Just look at the stock market and the insane volatility. I feel that this run might have been a stroke of good luck for the EA. Time will tell. My only advice is that if you do decide to use the EA on a live account, make sure you could weather a 1,500 pip drawdown OR set a high stop/loss.
My Wizard testing has come to a standstill thanks to the crazy stock market. The first week or so of trading was good but then everything came crashing down and I stopped trading. I don't think anybody can predict the markets from one day to the next at this point. Once things calm down and are a bit more predictible I will definitely try The Wizard again. Right now I feel like my best financial move is to use cash to pay down line of credit debt and just sit on the sidelines. If you're like me and still need to get a little action, here's something I've been doing. Check out the top day's losers on CNBC about an hour before market close. Find out why each stock is down significantly. Most likely there's a news story that preceded the drop. Today's market is driven by fear. It is very likely that the stock was oversold and there will be a bounce in the near future. Take a look at the company's fundamentals as well as the gravity of the news. Pick up some shares if you determine that this stock was oversold. Your goal is to sell it in the near future when the stock rebounds and cash in your profit. This is risky so don't commit too much of your portfolio. I'm sure there are plenty of deals out there for those willing to buy and hold.
I would like to remind everybody to check out my past posts about the Sports Betting Champ System and the Betting System Maximizer. The NBA season is fast approaching. Last year's record was an impressive 71-1.
I have an exciting progress report from my Forex Autopilot demo account. The account is set up with default settings (2 max trades). Take a look. Yes, you read it correctly, 2,060 pips from 9/4/08 to 10/10/08 with only one 60 pip losing trade! Your first thought might be "Craig, it's time to close the blog because you just found the Holy Grail!"; however, there's one important tidbit that you can't see from the statement. At one point, the FAP was floating two losing trades with total negative pips of roughly 1,500. That's an amount that could blow out an account that isn't using proper money management! I thought the FAP would close out a huge loss at the end of September but thanks to the crumbling U.S. economy, the trend reversed and the month was saved. So here are my thoughts: You can't take away the fact that the EA closed an astonishing amount of pips in just over a month; however, I do think these are extraordinary times. Just look at the stock market and the insane volatility. I feel that this run might have been a stroke of good luck for the EA. Time will tell. My only advice is that if you do decide to use the EA on a live account, make sure you could weather a 1,500 pip drawdown OR set a high stop/loss.
My Wizard testing has come to a standstill thanks to the crazy stock market. The first week or so of trading was good but then everything came crashing down and I stopped trading. I don't think anybody can predict the markets from one day to the next at this point. Once things calm down and are a bit more predictible I will definitely try The Wizard again. Right now I feel like my best financial move is to use cash to pay down line of credit debt and just sit on the sidelines. If you're like me and still need to get a little action, here's something I've been doing. Check out the top day's losers on CNBC about an hour before market close. Find out why each stock is down significantly. Most likely there's a news story that preceded the drop. Today's market is driven by fear. It is very likely that the stock was oversold and there will be a bounce in the near future. Take a look at the company's fundamentals as well as the gravity of the news. Pick up some shares if you determine that this stock was oversold. Your goal is to sell it in the near future when the stock rebounds and cash in your profit. This is risky so don't commit too much of your portfolio. I'm sure there are plenty of deals out there for those willing to buy and hold.
I would like to remind everybody to check out my past posts about the Sports Betting Champ System and the Betting System Maximizer. The NBA season is fast approaching. Last year's record was an impressive 71-1.
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Forex Autopilot and The Wizard Performance Update
Hi All,
I'll start with my weekly update of the Forex Autopilot. It is running on an IBFX demo account with default settings, 2 max trades, since 9/4/2008. The good news is that the FAP has closed 800 pips. The bad news is that it is floating 2 losing trades totaling 630 pips. Net result is +170 pips for the month. Interestingly only 3 of the 40 closed trades were buys. It is definitely picking up on the downtrend; however, both my losers are short (1.3902 and 1.4104).
I am also testing The Wizard signal provider for stocks. I have used it for a week now and have done fairly well. I had one losing trade that I closed out for a 6% loss but 4 other winning trades. One of my trades was actually up 27% in one day! I sold half of the position at a 12% profit as the system instructed. It's way too early to make a recommendation on this system. With a $99/month cost it has to perform well to make it worthwhile. I will say that I feel there are some bugs in the portfolio feature. This allows you to track your open and pending trades. I had one trade close out although the position should have really stayed open. The support person has been responsive but is basically claiming that it's working as intended, although I know that it's not. Oh well, I bought it for the signals anyway.
Until next week,
Craig
I'll start with my weekly update of the Forex Autopilot. It is running on an IBFX demo account with default settings, 2 max trades, since 9/4/2008. The good news is that the FAP has closed 800 pips. The bad news is that it is floating 2 losing trades totaling 630 pips. Net result is +170 pips for the month. Interestingly only 3 of the 40 closed trades were buys. It is definitely picking up on the downtrend; however, both my losers are short (1.3902 and 1.4104).
I am also testing The Wizard signal provider for stocks. I have used it for a week now and have done fairly well. I had one losing trade that I closed out for a 6% loss but 4 other winning trades. One of my trades was actually up 27% in one day! I sold half of the position at a 12% profit as the system instructed. It's way too early to make a recommendation on this system. With a $99/month cost it has to perform well to make it worthwhile. I will say that I feel there are some bugs in the portfolio feature. This allows you to track your open and pending trades. I had one trade close out although the position should have really stayed open. The support person has been responsive but is basically claiming that it's working as intended, although I know that it's not. Oh well, I bought it for the signals anyway.
Until next week,
Craig
Thursday, September 11, 2008
New Forex Autopilot Results 9/11/08
I've been running the new Forex Autopilot EA on a demo account since 9/4 with default settings. On 9/8 I changed the max trades setting to "2". Here are my current results.
As you can see it closed an amazing 660 pips between 9/4 and 9/11; however, floating losses total 424 pip. Although the net is still a very respective positive (+236 pips) I still feel that trading without a stop loss is a scary venture. I for one am not convinced that this EA is totally "fixed". I am going to continue to run this EA on the demo account and will update you when I have more info.
I have decided to take some time away from Forex trading. I've been trading since the beginning of the year and have found Forex to be an extremely difficult market. I have made nice profits, only to give them back to the market just as quickly as they came. I have decided to go back to my first love, stock trading.
I am testing a new (in '08) service called The Wizard. The site offers specific entry and exit signals for stocks, futures, ETF's, and even Forex. The site is more of a tool than a stock picking site. Their proprietary trend indicators pick the direction of specific industries and then recommend stocks within those industries. The idea is always to trade with the trend. As far as I can tell the results have been great. This week's results are always posted on the homepage. The site was created by Gene Stunkel, who from a quick Google search appears to be a legitimate trader/speaker/banker/real estate investor. You pay a monthly fee for each product. The stock site is $99/month, so you probably want to have at least $5,000 to trade with to use this product. I will begin picking stocks this week and will update my blog periodically. I would love to hear if anybody has used this service and if so, what the results were. I have not found much in the way of reviews as this was launched in spring of '08.
Til next time,
Craig
As you can see it closed an amazing 660 pips between 9/4 and 9/11; however, floating losses total 424 pip. Although the net is still a very respective positive (+236 pips) I still feel that trading without a stop loss is a scary venture. I for one am not convinced that this EA is totally "fixed". I am going to continue to run this EA on the demo account and will update you when I have more info.
I have decided to take some time away from Forex trading. I've been trading since the beginning of the year and have found Forex to be an extremely difficult market. I have made nice profits, only to give them back to the market just as quickly as they came. I have decided to go back to my first love, stock trading.
I am testing a new (in '08) service called The Wizard. The site offers specific entry and exit signals for stocks, futures, ETF's, and even Forex. The site is more of a tool than a stock picking site. Their proprietary trend indicators pick the direction of specific industries and then recommend stocks within those industries. The idea is always to trade with the trend. As far as I can tell the results have been great. This week's results are always posted on the homepage. The site was created by Gene Stunkel, who from a quick Google search appears to be a legitimate trader/speaker/banker/real estate investor. You pay a monthly fee for each product. The stock site is $99/month, so you probably want to have at least $5,000 to trade with to use this product. I will begin picking stocks this week and will update my blog periodically. I would love to hear if anybody has used this service and if so, what the results were. I have not found much in the way of reviews as this was launched in spring of '08.
Til next time,
Craig
Friday, September 5, 2008
Follow Up Post on Forex Autopilot
I just wanted to share some exciting results from the new Forex Autopilot EA. This is running the default settings and starting only yesterday. The EA is set to trade a maximum of 2 trades at the same time. Take a look at the 15-min chart (reds=sells, greens=buys):
That's a total of TWENTY 20-pip profitable trades over 24 hours for a grand total of 400 closed pips!! I have 2 floating trades which net to +13 pips. 24 hours doesn't mean much in the long run but it was a heck of a start. I look forward to posting more results next week.
Have a great weekend,
Craig
That's a total of TWENTY 20-pip profitable trades over 24 hours for a grand total of 400 closed pips!! I have 2 floating trades which net to +13 pips. 24 hours doesn't mean much in the long run but it was a heck of a start. I look forward to posting more results next week.
Have a great weekend,
Craig
Thursday, September 4, 2008
Bogie-NN-v8 Performance Update and NEW Forex Autopilot Info
Hello All,
Now that summer is winding down I should have more time to stay current with my posting.
The Bogie-NN-v8 experienced issues picking up on the change in market direction in early August. I basically gave back all of the profit that I had made the weeks prior. I turned the EA off for about a week or so then started it up about two weeks ago. A week later and I was up about 15%. Today I turned the EA off after once again giving back all of the profit I earned. I am very disappointed as I had hopes that this EA was something special. Please take a look at CK's live results here. CK's EA was set to the original settings; however, it should be noted that Boatright issued new settings a few weeks ago. Unfortunately I was using some custom settings so I don't have results using the recommended settings.
I received an interesting email from Forex Autopilot yesterday. They claimed to be offering a new FAP that was capable of picking up on both up and down trends. I was actually amazed that they finally admitted that the weakness of the EA was that it couldn't pick up on downtrends!! Anyway, the new FAP is free to download for past purchasers so I gave it a try. My demo account closed 7 20-pip profitable trades since yesterday. Interestingly, most of the trades were shorts so I guess it is now capable of picking up on a down market.
I also discovered a site called FAP Winner. It was created by Charles Floyd, who claims to be a professional trader. The site includes a FAP EA with custom settings (you don't need to buy one separately), access to a fairly active forum for questions/answers about FAP, a custom trading plan, and a weekly trading strategy. I found the weekly trading strategy to be useful. He will note things such as: "set EA to only longs this week" or "set EA to trade only during European session". These recommendations seem to be well thought-out. I was concerned about something they call the "March to a Million". Charles will send you a custom trading plan set to your account balance and based on how you can reach a million dollars in two years. My first recommended trade was 1 standard lot for my $10,000 account. If you recall, FAP doesn't have a S/L so there is a potential for huge drawdown. A 400 pip DD would put me at 40% DD based on the trading plan. I don't feel that this is proper money management.
I am currently trading both the FAP Winner EA/trading strategy and the standard new FAP on a live account (set to 1 mini lot trades). I'll plan to share my results with you soon.
Cheers,
Craig
Now that summer is winding down I should have more time to stay current with my posting.
The Bogie-NN-v8 experienced issues picking up on the change in market direction in early August. I basically gave back all of the profit that I had made the weeks prior. I turned the EA off for about a week or so then started it up about two weeks ago. A week later and I was up about 15%. Today I turned the EA off after once again giving back all of the profit I earned. I am very disappointed as I had hopes that this EA was something special. Please take a look at CK's live results here. CK's EA was set to the original settings; however, it should be noted that Boatright issued new settings a few weeks ago. Unfortunately I was using some custom settings so I don't have results using the recommended settings.
I received an interesting email from Forex Autopilot yesterday. They claimed to be offering a new FAP that was capable of picking up on both up and down trends. I was actually amazed that they finally admitted that the weakness of the EA was that it couldn't pick up on downtrends!! Anyway, the new FAP is free to download for past purchasers so I gave it a try. My demo account closed 7 20-pip profitable trades since yesterday. Interestingly, most of the trades were shorts so I guess it is now capable of picking up on a down market.
I also discovered a site called FAP Winner. It was created by Charles Floyd, who claims to be a professional trader. The site includes a FAP EA with custom settings (you don't need to buy one separately), access to a fairly active forum for questions/answers about FAP, a custom trading plan, and a weekly trading strategy. I found the weekly trading strategy to be useful. He will note things such as: "set EA to only longs this week" or "set EA to trade only during European session". These recommendations seem to be well thought-out. I was concerned about something they call the "March to a Million". Charles will send you a custom trading plan set to your account balance and based on how you can reach a million dollars in two years. My first recommended trade was 1 standard lot for my $10,000 account. If you recall, FAP doesn't have a S/L so there is a potential for huge drawdown. A 400 pip DD would put me at 40% DD based on the trading plan. I don't feel that this is proper money management.
I am currently trading both the FAP Winner EA/trading strategy and the standard new FAP on a live account (set to 1 mini lot trades). I'll plan to share my results with you soon.
Cheers,
Craig
Sunday, May 4, 2008
Forex Autopilot Performance Update 5/4/08
Greetings! This will be a short update as there is not much to talk about. I closed out the losing trade on my live account for about a 400 pip loss this past week. I decided to remove the EA from my live account until I see how my demo account does in this volatile market.
My demo account closed out it's long position at 1.6009 for a 385 pip loss on 5/1/08. Interesting I actually lost more on my live account due to a hedge that I closed out as the market temporarily rebounded. To my dismay the EA opened another long at 1.5625 which is currently floating a 175 pip loss.
I'm not going to post the actual trade details this week as I've already detailed the only trades closed.
Thus far the results during a downtrend have been weak to say the least. The EA catches pips easily on an uptrend. The EA also did well in a market trading in range (with a little help). I will continue to run the EA on the demo and hope that Markus Leary continues to fine-tune the EA.
Craig
Click here to see past Forex Autopilot updates.
My demo account closed out it's long position at 1.6009 for a 385 pip loss on 5/1/08. Interesting I actually lost more on my live account due to a hedge that I closed out as the market temporarily rebounded. To my dismay the EA opened another long at 1.5625 which is currently floating a 175 pip loss.
I'm not going to post the actual trade details this week as I've already detailed the only trades closed.
Thus far the results during a downtrend have been weak to say the least. The EA catches pips easily on an uptrend. The EA also did well in a market trading in range (with a little help). I will continue to run the EA on the demo and hope that Markus Leary continues to fine-tune the EA.
Craig
Click here to see past Forex Autopilot updates.
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Forex Autopilot Mid-week Update 4/29/08
Hi all! I want to remind everybody that tomorrow at 00:00 GMT 5/1/08 your Forex Autopilot will close all open trades. This also includes any manually entered trades. If you do not wish to have your trades closed then remove your EA until after 5/1.
The EA was made to close any floating losses/profits at the beginning of each month. I plan to allow it to close out my "hands off" demo account. On my live account my short hedge at 1.5590 is now in play and I've locked in roughly a 400 pip loss. I'm not sure whether I'll close out or wait to see if we experience an uptick in the market. The FED is meeting tomorrow and there may or may not be another quarter percent rate cut. I believe that non-action may be a very bullish sign for the dollar and it may be time to cut losses on those floating 1.5900+ longs.
Best,
Craig
The EA was made to close any floating losses/profits at the beginning of each month. I plan to allow it to close out my "hands off" demo account. On my live account my short hedge at 1.5590 is now in play and I've locked in roughly a 400 pip loss. I'm not sure whether I'll close out or wait to see if we experience an uptick in the market. The FED is meeting tomorrow and there may or may not be another quarter percent rate cut. I believe that non-action may be a very bullish sign for the dollar and it may be time to cut losses on those floating 1.5900+ longs.
Best,
Craig
Friday, April 25, 2008
Forex Autopilot Performance Update 4/25/08
Happy Friday! Time for this week's review of the Forex Autopilot EA by Markus Leary.
This week we saw the EURUSD reach the record 1.6000 level and then make a major correction to a close at 1.5593 (a 400+ swing in a matter of days). We all knew this was coming but it was a matter of "when". Due to the EA's preference for long positions many of you are either sitting on significant drawdown or have manually closed out a large loss. My live (somewhat manually managed) account closed 186 pips of profit and is floating a 379 pip loss. The "hands off" demo account closed 150 pips and is floating a 416 pip loss.
I chose not to stop out the trade as I've been burned a few times in the past for letting my emotions get the best of me. I will however, monitor the market closely next week and potentially stop out the loss. At this point my $3,000 deposit has grown to a balance of $4,010 so I'm really just losing profit rather than principal. If I chose to do nothing the trade will eventually close out automatically on the 1st of May.
One strategy to manage the current drawdown is to manually place a hedge trade. By setting a short position you will in effect "lock in" your loss as the market continues to decline. With each pip decline, the long will lose a pip and the short will gain a pip - netting out to a wash. If you decide that the market has begun an uptrend you can close out the hedge trade and your "locked in" loss will decline as the price climbs. I wish I would've set a hedge as I'm worried about a potential gap at market open.
Collectively we have learned a lot about the strengths and weaknesses of this EA and hopefully we will continue to learn how to maximize the strengths and mitigate the weaknesses. I spoke with a representative from Forex Autopilot yesterday and he mentioned that updates will be released and all existing users will be notified. I would be excited to see what changes will be made in the future.
On an unrelated note, you can now access this blog at www.craigsmoneymakingblog.com. Now it's much easier to remember when you're at work!
Have a great weekend and let's hope for a good upcoming week of trading.
Craig
Click here to view past Forex Autopilot updates.
This week we saw the EURUSD reach the record 1.6000 level and then make a major correction to a close at 1.5593 (a 400+ swing in a matter of days). We all knew this was coming but it was a matter of "when". Due to the EA's preference for long positions many of you are either sitting on significant drawdown or have manually closed out a large loss. My live (somewhat manually managed) account closed 186 pips of profit and is floating a 379 pip loss. The "hands off" demo account closed 150 pips and is floating a 416 pip loss.
I chose not to stop out the trade as I've been burned a few times in the past for letting my emotions get the best of me. I will however, monitor the market closely next week and potentially stop out the loss. At this point my $3,000 deposit has grown to a balance of $4,010 so I'm really just losing profit rather than principal. If I chose to do nothing the trade will eventually close out automatically on the 1st of May.
One strategy to manage the current drawdown is to manually place a hedge trade. By setting a short position you will in effect "lock in" your loss as the market continues to decline. With each pip decline, the long will lose a pip and the short will gain a pip - netting out to a wash. If you decide that the market has begun an uptrend you can close out the hedge trade and your "locked in" loss will decline as the price climbs. I wish I would've set a hedge as I'm worried about a potential gap at market open.
Collectively we have learned a lot about the strengths and weaknesses of this EA and hopefully we will continue to learn how to maximize the strengths and mitigate the weaknesses. I spoke with a representative from Forex Autopilot yesterday and he mentioned that updates will be released and all existing users will be notified. I would be excited to see what changes will be made in the future.
On an unrelated note, you can now access this blog at www.craigsmoneymakingblog.com. Now it's much easier to remember when you're at work!
Have a great weekend and let's hope for a good upcoming week of trading.
Craig
Click here to view past Forex Autopilot updates.
Sunday, April 20, 2008
Forex Autopilot Performance Update 4/20/08
Greetings all! I am anxious to add a fresh post as it's taking 10 minutes just to scroll through all of the 89+ comments on my last post. The discussion has been great and provides educational value for all visitors (myself included). Keep it up!
I've had another profitable week of trading with the Forex Autopilot EA. I closed approximately 340 pips on my live account this week ($340). That's an 11% return on my original $3,000 deposit.
The FAP closed 7 trades this week for a total of 165 pips (5x25 and 2x20). The remainder of my profit was made from manual trades that I placed using my strategy described in last week's post. I have realized that I cannot run this EA totally "hands off" in my live trading account. I can't help making easy money when I get the opportunity. Because of this reason I have decided to run a demo account through the same broker, starting with the same capital, and running the same EA settings. Each week I will post both my live results and demo results. That will give us a truly "hands off" look at what this EA can do.
The EUR/USD hit new heights last week which made me nervous because of the EA's preference to take long positions. I actually turned the EA off for about 12 hours until the market made a correction. Unfortunately during Thursday night it rebounded and I entered a buy at 1.5923 and the market dropped significantly. I placed a manual hedge buy at 1.5848 on Friday AM. I'm currently sitting on a combined drawdown (manual and FAP trade) of approximately 184 pips. I'm not overly concerned and may either break even or possibly profit on both trades. Last I checked the US ecomomy didn't rebound over the weekend :-)
A frequent visitor to the site, Peter (fxisland on the comment thread), created a spreadsheet that calculates return based on inputted winning %, avg win, avg loss, etc. Thanks Peter! The Excel spreadsheet can be downloaded here.
I have posted this week's live account statement below. Another blog visitor, Fawzi, has generously shared his FAP results which can be downloaded here.
I have noticed through the comment thread that some of you may not be running the FAP on a virtual private server (VPS). A VPS is a subscription service that allows you to have a server-based operating system that runs 24/7 and guarantees nearly 100% uptime. I use VPS Land and pay $20 a month for the service. I originally was running my EA's off of a laptop which eventually froze up one day while I was at work and cost me some real money. The VPS allows me to access the same MT4 platform from any computer with an internet connection. Ck Owyong has a wonderful tutorial on setting up a VPS here.
I have also noticed that there is some confusion between the Forex Autopilot by Markus Leary, the Forex Autopilot by Mark Copeland, and the Forex Killer by Andreas Kirchberger. Markus Leary's version is that product that I've been testing. Copeland is offering another EA which I have not tested. Kirchberger created a tool for generating signals. This is not an automated system and is to be used in conjunction with you other technical and fundamental indicators. I have purchased the Forex Killer but never spent a significant amount of time with it. My focus is on automated trading as I don't really have time to manually trade. I have heard some good things about the Forex Killer and have heard some bad things about Copeland's Forex Autopilot; however, I encourage you to do your own testing and make your own mind up.
Cheers!
Craig
Past Forex Autopilot Updates:
Forex Autopilot Performance Update 4/11/08
Forex Autopilot Update 4/4/08Forex Autopilot Independent Review
I've had another profitable week of trading with the Forex Autopilot EA. I closed approximately 340 pips on my live account this week ($340). That's an 11% return on my original $3,000 deposit.
The FAP closed 7 trades this week for a total of 165 pips (5x25 and 2x20). The remainder of my profit was made from manual trades that I placed using my strategy described in last week's post. I have realized that I cannot run this EA totally "hands off" in my live trading account. I can't help making easy money when I get the opportunity. Because of this reason I have decided to run a demo account through the same broker, starting with the same capital, and running the same EA settings. Each week I will post both my live results and demo results. That will give us a truly "hands off" look at what this EA can do.
The EUR/USD hit new heights last week which made me nervous because of the EA's preference to take long positions. I actually turned the EA off for about 12 hours until the market made a correction. Unfortunately during Thursday night it rebounded and I entered a buy at 1.5923 and the market dropped significantly. I placed a manual hedge buy at 1.5848 on Friday AM. I'm currently sitting on a combined drawdown (manual and FAP trade) of approximately 184 pips. I'm not overly concerned and may either break even or possibly profit on both trades. Last I checked the US ecomomy didn't rebound over the weekend :-)
A frequent visitor to the site, Peter (fxisland on the comment thread), created a spreadsheet that calculates return based on inputted winning %, avg win, avg loss, etc. Thanks Peter! The Excel spreadsheet can be downloaded here.
I have posted this week's live account statement below. Another blog visitor, Fawzi, has generously shared his FAP results which can be downloaded here.
I have noticed through the comment thread that some of you may not be running the FAP on a virtual private server (VPS). A VPS is a subscription service that allows you to have a server-based operating system that runs 24/7 and guarantees nearly 100% uptime. I use VPS Land and pay $20 a month for the service. I originally was running my EA's off of a laptop which eventually froze up one day while I was at work and cost me some real money. The VPS allows me to access the same MT4 platform from any computer with an internet connection. Ck Owyong has a wonderful tutorial on setting up a VPS here.
I have also noticed that there is some confusion between the Forex Autopilot by Markus Leary, the Forex Autopilot by Mark Copeland, and the Forex Killer by Andreas Kirchberger. Markus Leary's version is that product that I've been testing. Copeland is offering another EA which I have not tested. Kirchberger created a tool for generating signals. This is not an automated system and is to be used in conjunction with you other technical and fundamental indicators. I have purchased the Forex Killer but never spent a significant amount of time with it. My focus is on automated trading as I don't really have time to manually trade. I have heard some good things about the Forex Killer and have heard some bad things about Copeland's Forex Autopilot; however, I encourage you to do your own testing and make your own mind up.
Cheers!
Craig
Past Forex Autopilot Updates:
Forex Autopilot Performance Update 4/11/08
Forex Autopilot Update 4/4/08Forex Autopilot Independent Review
Friday, April 11, 2008
Forex Autopilot Performance Update 4/11/08
It's been yet another profitable week of Forex trading for the Forex
Autopilot EA. The final pip count for this week was 125. Not quite as impressive as past weeks but definitely respectable. Based on my initial deposit of $3,000 this is a one-week gain of 4.2%. If I can average this for the year my return would be 217%. Not bad for an $89 software program.
I've been scouring the net for discussion boards, blogs, and honest reviews of this program for over a month. It seems like everybody is having a positive experience with this EA. It has outperformed other commercial EA's that cost significantly more. I'm considering increasing my mini-lot setting to 2 - which would net me a $50 profit per trade. I should be okay if I set a 500 pip stop loss based on my equity balance of close to $3,500.
I have identified one weaknesses of the EA. I am concerned with the high number of long positions it takes. I did not have a single short position all week. This is especially concerning when the price reaches an upper resistance (say 1.5880). If I take a position at the peak it may be a long time before it breaks through the resistance to reach my profit target. Additionally, my opportunity cost is all of the trades that I miss while waiting it to close. My first idea was to set a stop sell at say 1.5870 (+/-). If the price increased to that amount it would enter a short position and the EA would not enter another position until this sell was closed (say at 1.5800). I tested this scenario and found that the EA will not enter new trades when you have a pending order set. On to "Plan B". When the EA has taken a long position close to the upper resistance (say 1.5850) I manually place a short position. The FAP long position will still close when it hits the profit target but it will not open any more trades. This means that I can wait until the short position closes (say 1.5800) and then restart the EA (you will need to manually remove and replace the EA to get it going again). This is not a perfect solution because you do need to monitor it to make sure you place the sell trade before the target is hit and the EA places a new trade. It does however mitigate some of the risk of getting "stuck" with a long position at the peak.
I hope that the creators of the EA will upgrade it to allow the "max orders" option to work. This would allow the EA to open multiple orders. It is currently an option that doesn't work.
Overall I am very satisfied with the performance and would recommend it to anybody to try. Everybody has their own risk tolerance but even at a 0.50 mini-lot setting it will probably pay for itself in a week or so. Here is the website.
I have received a number of emails regarding this program. I would encourage you to post under the "Comments" section below. This would be beneficial to other visitors who have similar questions or would like to learn about other user's personal experiences. I am still fine with answering personal emails if you feel more comfortable communicating directly.
Additionally, I would love to learn about other money making opportunities that you have personally come across. I can either post your own "guest blog" or do my own review of the opportunity. I am open to all types of money making concepts. As you may have read earlier, I am an advocate of the Sports Betting Champ system. This may not be your typical investment but it does provide a nice return at a low risk.
This week's FAP results are posted below. You'll notice two trades that were placed manually. All $25 profit trades were placed by the FAP. I am running the following settings: Lots: 1 ;LRR: 1 ; MO: 1 ; ML : 100 ; aaa: 13 ; bbb:14 ; TP: 25 ; SL: 0 ; TS: 50 ; SG: 0.5 ; SP: 3 ; SGD: 0.2 ; SGW: 0.
Have a great weekend!
Past Forex Autopilot Updates:
Forex Autopilot Update 4/4/08
Forex Autopilot Independent Review
Autopilot EA. The final pip count for this week was 125. Not quite as impressive as past weeks but definitely respectable. Based on my initial deposit of $3,000 this is a one-week gain of 4.2%. If I can average this for the year my return would be 217%. Not bad for an $89 software program.
I've been scouring the net for discussion boards, blogs, and honest reviews of this program for over a month. It seems like everybody is having a positive experience with this EA. It has outperformed other commercial EA's that cost significantly more. I'm considering increasing my mini-lot setting to 2 - which would net me a $50 profit per trade. I should be okay if I set a 500 pip stop loss based on my equity balance of close to $3,500.
I have identified one weaknesses of the EA. I am concerned with the high number of long positions it takes. I did not have a single short position all week. This is especially concerning when the price reaches an upper resistance (say 1.5880). If I take a position at the peak it may be a long time before it breaks through the resistance to reach my profit target. Additionally, my opportunity cost is all of the trades that I miss while waiting it to close. My first idea was to set a stop sell at say 1.5870 (+/-). If the price increased to that amount it would enter a short position and the EA would not enter another position until this sell was closed (say at 1.5800). I tested this scenario and found that the EA will not enter new trades when you have a pending order set. On to "Plan B". When the EA has taken a long position close to the upper resistance (say 1.5850) I manually place a short position. The FAP long position will still close when it hits the profit target but it will not open any more trades. This means that I can wait until the short position closes (say 1.5800) and then restart the EA (you will need to manually remove and replace the EA to get it going again). This is not a perfect solution because you do need to monitor it to make sure you place the sell trade before the target is hit and the EA places a new trade. It does however mitigate some of the risk of getting "stuck" with a long position at the peak.
I hope that the creators of the EA will upgrade it to allow the "max orders" option to work. This would allow the EA to open multiple orders. It is currently an option that doesn't work.
Overall I am very satisfied with the performance and would recommend it to anybody to try. Everybody has their own risk tolerance but even at a 0.50 mini-lot setting it will probably pay for itself in a week or so. Here is the website.
I have received a number of emails regarding this program. I would encourage you to post under the "Comments" section below. This would be beneficial to other visitors who have similar questions or would like to learn about other user's personal experiences. I am still fine with answering personal emails if you feel more comfortable communicating directly.
Additionally, I would love to learn about other money making opportunities that you have personally come across. I can either post your own "guest blog" or do my own review of the opportunity. I am open to all types of money making concepts. As you may have read earlier, I am an advocate of the Sports Betting Champ system. This may not be your typical investment but it does provide a nice return at a low risk.
This week's FAP results are posted below. You'll notice two trades that were placed manually. All $25 profit trades were placed by the FAP. I am running the following settings: Lots: 1 ;LRR: 1 ; MO: 1 ; ML : 100 ; aaa: 13 ; bbb:14 ; TP: 25 ; SL: 0 ; TS: 50 ; SG: 0.5 ; SP: 3 ; SGD: 0.2 ; SGW: 0.
Have a great weekend!
Past Forex Autopilot Updates:
Forex Autopilot Update 4/4/08
Forex Autopilot Independent Review
Friday, April 4, 2008
Forex Autopilot Peformance Update 4/4/08
It's been another exciting week of Forex Autopilot trading! I learned two important things this week:
1. Follow the directions and do not put a stop loss on this EA. It's not designed to have one and I took some unnecessary losses as a result (this week and last). At different times this week I had the S/L at 50, then 100, then 200 pips. I took a loss of 52 pips on 3/28 and did the same thing for a 202 pip loss on 4/1. Without the S/L both trades would have shortly closed for a profit.
2. The EA is set to close all trades on the chart (FAP originated or manual) at 00:00GMT on the first of each month. Remember to remove the EA on the last day of the month. The EA can then be restarted after 00:00GMT on the first day of the month once the floating trade closes. I opened a trade on the 31st and the EA closed it out for a 134 pip loss at 00:00 4/1.
Aside from the S/L losses and the accidental "first of the month" trade close (all of which were my fault) the EA did excellent. It closed 15 trades for a 25 pip profit each and 3 trailing stops for minimal profit. My actual live trading account result for 3/28-4/4 was a net loss of 7 pips. Backing out the S/L trades and accidental close would have resulted in a net profit of 381 pips! This is not perfect because it doesn't take into consideration time that it would have lost waiting for my S/L trades to close at a profit and also doesn't take into consideration the 50 pips I would have made from the S/L trades closing at a profit.
Since inception (3/12-4/4) my total actual net profit is 248 pips while the adjusted net profit is a whopping 902 pips! Remember that the "adjusted" profit is not perfect for the reasons stated above but I think it says something very positive any way you look at it.
This week I intend to run it "hands off" so we should have a much cleaner performance detail next weekend. I will be running it at the following settings: Lots: 1 ;LRR: 1 ; MO: 1 ; ML : 100 ; aaa: 9 ; bbb:10 ; TP: 25 ; SL: 0 ; TS: 20 ; SG: 0.5 ; SP: 3 ; SGD: 0.2 ; SGW: 0
I am still a little leery about my custom aaa/bbb settings. The time between trades is typically anywhere from a few minutes to an hour and a half. I believe if I used the recommended settings my trades would be fewer but possibly more conservative. I may change the aaa/bbb for a future week just to see the results.
Here are my results with some pertinent notes:
I intend to continue updating this performance blog on a weekly basis as long as I continue using FAP. Remember that this is LIVE testing on a real-money account so what I'm reporting is authentic and better than some other backtesting and demo reviews. If you appreciate my blog and decide to purchase the Forex Autopilot please show your appreciation by purchasing it by clicking on either my text link or side banner. I get a few bucks from the sale and I have some incentive to keep blogging. On another note, please feel free to email or comment your questions and I'll do my best to help or find an answer.
Have a great week of trading,
Craig
Past Forex Autopilot Updates:
Forex Autopilot Independent Review
1. Follow the directions and do not put a stop loss on this EA. It's not designed to have one and I took some unnecessary losses as a result (this week and last). At different times this week I had the S/L at 50, then 100, then 200 pips. I took a loss of 52 pips on 3/28 and did the same thing for a 202 pip loss on 4/1. Without the S/L both trades would have shortly closed for a profit.
2. The EA is set to close all trades on the chart (FAP originated or manual) at 00:00GMT on the first of each month. Remember to remove the EA on the last day of the month. The EA can then be restarted after 00:00GMT on the first day of the month once the floating trade closes. I opened a trade on the 31st and the EA closed it out for a 134 pip loss at 00:00 4/1.
Aside from the S/L losses and the accidental "first of the month" trade close (all of which were my fault) the EA did excellent. It closed 15 trades for a 25 pip profit each and 3 trailing stops for minimal profit. My actual live trading account result for 3/28-4/4 was a net loss of 7 pips. Backing out the S/L trades and accidental close would have resulted in a net profit of 381 pips! This is not perfect because it doesn't take into consideration time that it would have lost waiting for my S/L trades to close at a profit and also doesn't take into consideration the 50 pips I would have made from the S/L trades closing at a profit.
Since inception (3/12-4/4) my total actual net profit is 248 pips while the adjusted net profit is a whopping 902 pips! Remember that the "adjusted" profit is not perfect for the reasons stated above but I think it says something very positive any way you look at it.
This week I intend to run it "hands off" so we should have a much cleaner performance detail next weekend. I will be running it at the following settings: Lots: 1 ;LRR: 1 ; MO: 1 ; ML : 100 ; aaa: 9 ; bbb:10 ; TP: 25 ; SL: 0 ; TS: 20 ; SG: 0.5 ; SP: 3 ; SGD: 0.2 ; SGW: 0
I am still a little leery about my custom aaa/bbb settings. The time between trades is typically anywhere from a few minutes to an hour and a half. I believe if I used the recommended settings my trades would be fewer but possibly more conservative. I may change the aaa/bbb for a future week just to see the results.
Here are my results with some pertinent notes:
I intend to continue updating this performance blog on a weekly basis as long as I continue using FAP. Remember that this is LIVE testing on a real-money account so what I'm reporting is authentic and better than some other backtesting and demo reviews. If you appreciate my blog and decide to purchase the Forex Autopilot please show your appreciation by purchasing it by clicking on either my text link or side banner. I get a few bucks from the sale and I have some incentive to keep blogging. On another note, please feel free to email or comment your questions and I'll do my best to help or find an answer.
Have a great week of trading,
Craig
Past Forex Autopilot Updates:
Forex Autopilot Independent Review
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Forex Autopilot Independent Review
I have been testing the Forex Autopilot EA by Marcus Leary. I was drawn to Forex Autopilot (FAP) for a few reasons. One was the price- it's a one-time $89.50 charge for the program and there's a money-back guarantee. I heard rumblings that it had some potential so I thought I'd check it out.
My first impressions were not great. The marketing is definitely cheesy (click above, you'll see). The manuals seem to have been quickly put together and are fairly sparse in details. Some questions sent to support were not answered or took too long to be answered. But then again, this is an $89.50 one-time purchase. I was also testing Pipforia which is an $89 per month subscription. Many other EA's cost over $300. Just because the support is weak doesn't mean that the program is, so I put the EA to work on my account.
The settings are not difficult like some EA's (ahem..Pipforia). The only thing you really need to set is your lot size. I started with only 0.3 mini-lots as I am always skeptical at first. (This is probably the part where I should recommend that you only test it on a demo account until you're comfortable; however, if you're like me you can't stand to see your demo account make play money so I'm testing it on a live account of $3,000. ) The directions included are good enough for a complete newbie to get the EA running on their MT4 platform.
Forex Autopilot runs only on the EUR/USD 1 minute chart. The EA will enter trades (both buys and sells) when the internal indicators find an entry point. This can take hours but usually less than an hour. The default profit setting is 25 pips ($25 if you're using a 1 lot setting on a mini account, $250 if you're using a 1 lot setting on a standard account). Once the trade hits a 25 pip profit it will close and search for the next entry point. The default settings do not include a stop loss.
According to the creator, the EA will close a losing trade that hits certain exit indicators. If it never hits those indicators it will automatically close on the 1st of the month. Last week my EA placed a buy at the height of the fall of the dollar vs. euro. The FED dropped interest rates by 0.75% and gas prices dropped significantly overnight. The dollar surged and the price plummeted to a point where I was facing a 400 pip floating loss. I was extremely disappointed that the EA didn't exit the trade. A few days later I manually closed the trade with a 240 pip loss, feeling fortunate not to have lost 400. The next day the dollar dropped like a rock and I would've closed with a profit had I not interfered - lesson learned.
I decided to fine tune the settings with a 100 pip stop loss. If I had this in place last week I may have taken a 100 pip loss but hopefully the EA would have placed sell trades to make money on the way down and buy trades on the way up. I'm not saying that the stop loss is the way to go, but I'm testing it and feel better knowing that my losses are limited.
So what's the bottom line after less than three weeks of trading and a super volatile period - a net profit of 255 pips! That's $255 if I'm using 1 mini lot or $2,550 if I'm using 1 standard lot! $255 is an 8.5% return on my investment in less than 3 weeks. Not bad when CD's are paying 2% and money markets are paying 4% at best.
Below is an actual trade detail statement from my live trading account from 3/12-3/27. Please note that I was using different lot sizes so I handwrote the amount of pips gained/lost on the right side. Also, please note that my 241 pip loss would have been a 25 pip gain had I left the EA alone. That would have resulted in a 521 pip gain over the same period - a 17%+ return!
Forex Autopilot
Forex Autopilot Performance Update 4/4/08
My first impressions were not great. The marketing is definitely cheesy (click above, you'll see). The manuals seem to have been quickly put together and are fairly sparse in details. Some questions sent to support were not answered or took too long to be answered. But then again, this is an $89.50 one-time purchase. I was also testing Pipforia which is an $89 per month subscription. Many other EA's cost over $300. Just because the support is weak doesn't mean that the program is, so I put the EA to work on my account.
The settings are not difficult like some EA's (ahem..Pipforia). The only thing you really need to set is your lot size. I started with only 0.3 mini-lots as I am always skeptical at first. (This is probably the part where I should recommend that you only test it on a demo account until you're comfortable; however, if you're like me you can't stand to see your demo account make play money so I'm testing it on a live account of $3,000. ) The directions included are good enough for a complete newbie to get the EA running on their MT4 platform.
Forex Autopilot runs only on the EUR/USD 1 minute chart. The EA will enter trades (both buys and sells) when the internal indicators find an entry point. This can take hours but usually less than an hour. The default profit setting is 25 pips ($25 if you're using a 1 lot setting on a mini account, $250 if you're using a 1 lot setting on a standard account). Once the trade hits a 25 pip profit it will close and search for the next entry point. The default settings do not include a stop loss.
According to the creator, the EA will close a losing trade that hits certain exit indicators. If it never hits those indicators it will automatically close on the 1st of the month. Last week my EA placed a buy at the height of the fall of the dollar vs. euro. The FED dropped interest rates by 0.75% and gas prices dropped significantly overnight. The dollar surged and the price plummeted to a point where I was facing a 400 pip floating loss. I was extremely disappointed that the EA didn't exit the trade. A few days later I manually closed the trade with a 240 pip loss, feeling fortunate not to have lost 400. The next day the dollar dropped like a rock and I would've closed with a profit had I not interfered - lesson learned.
I decided to fine tune the settings with a 100 pip stop loss. If I had this in place last week I may have taken a 100 pip loss but hopefully the EA would have placed sell trades to make money on the way down and buy trades on the way up. I'm not saying that the stop loss is the way to go, but I'm testing it and feel better knowing that my losses are limited.
So what's the bottom line after less than three weeks of trading and a super volatile period - a net profit of 255 pips! That's $255 if I'm using 1 mini lot or $2,550 if I'm using 1 standard lot! $255 is an 8.5% return on my investment in less than 3 weeks. Not bad when CD's are paying 2% and money markets are paying 4% at best.
Below is an actual trade detail statement from my live trading account from 3/12-3/27. Please note that I was using different lot sizes so I handwrote the amount of pips gained/lost on the right side. Also, please note that my 241 pip loss would have been a 25 pip gain had I left the EA alone. That would have resulted in a 521 pip gain over the same period - a 17%+ return!
My current settings are as follows: Lots: 1 ; LRR: 1 ; MO: 1 ; ML : 100 ; aaa: 9 ; bbb:10 ; TP: 25 ; SL: 50 ; TS: 20 ; SG: 0.5 ; SP: 3 ; SGD: 0.2 ; SGW: 0
I'm going to continue testing and will update this weekly so bookmark this blog. It would be irresponsible of me to risk a significant amount of money on this EA or to recommend that you do the same without more testing; however, I do think that this EA is worth the $89.50 to buy, test, and potentially profit. The money-back guarantee is through Clickbank so you can feel confident that it will be honored. Feel free to make comments and ask questions. Please click below to see the website:Forex Autopilot
Forex Autopilot Performance Update 4/4/08
Forex Trading and Expert Advisors
The next opportunity that I'm going to discuss is the Forex Autopilot EA. Before I get to that I'd like to give you a quick overview of both the Forex market and Expert Advisors.
If you're not familiar with the term Forex, it's short for the foreign exchange currency market. If I take a long (buy) position on the EUR/USD currency pair I am essentially betting that the value of the Euro will increase against the US Dollar. If I take a short position (sell) my bet is the other way around. Prices go up and down based on market sentiment (i.e. interest rates, commodity prices, unemployment, overall economic stability) and everyday traders scalping the markets for gains. The Forex market is more volatile because of leverage. Leverage is the ratio of currency volume to account equity. If I'm trading on a standard account, 1 lot ($10 equity) can control $100,000 in currency. If I'm trading a mini account, 1 mini lot ($1 equity) can control $10,000 in currency. It's necessary to control a larger volume of currency because price changes are measured in very small increments. For example, 1 EUR/USD pip is 0.0001. So an increase of 100 pips (a price increase of 0.0100) in your standard account would net a gain of $1,000. It's important to understand that Forex trading is a zero sum game, meaning that if one person makes money, another person loses money. This makes Forex trading a little bit more like playing poker than trading stocks; however, the upside can be much greater then the stock market.
If you're totally confused at this point check out the Babypips website. They have a great Forex tutorial.
When I first learned about the Forex market I had dreams of becoming a successful day trader. Then I came to some realizations:
#1. Although the Forex Market is open 24 hours 5 days a week, the best trading times are during the London and New York markets. I'm on the US east coast so the London market starts at 3AM (while I'm sleeping) and the New York market trades 8am-5pm (when I'm at work).
#2. Who wants to spend their entire day glued to a computer waiting for a trade signal?
#3. 90% of Forex traders lose money in the long run - am I really smarter than 90% of traders?
That was disappointing...then I learned about Expert Advisors. Expert Advisors (EA) is a program that is run on the Metatrader 4 platform (used by many brokers such as IBFX). The computer program (or script) uses indicators, entry points, stop losses, etc...basically everything that a technical trader would manually look for. The EA runs 24/5 on either a continually running PC or a Virtual Personal Server (highly recommended) and opens and closes trades as it sees fit. Think about it- you're at work, sleeping, or at your local bar and the EA is making money for you!! It's definitely an exciting concept but finding an EA that actually works is far less exciting. I'm going to share my experiences, good and bad, to help you in your quest for cash.
If you're not familiar with the term Forex, it's short for the foreign exchange currency market. If I take a long (buy) position on the EUR/USD currency pair I am essentially betting that the value of the Euro will increase against the US Dollar. If I take a short position (sell) my bet is the other way around. Prices go up and down based on market sentiment (i.e. interest rates, commodity prices, unemployment, overall economic stability) and everyday traders scalping the markets for gains. The Forex market is more volatile because of leverage. Leverage is the ratio of currency volume to account equity. If I'm trading on a standard account, 1 lot ($10 equity) can control $100,000 in currency. If I'm trading a mini account, 1 mini lot ($1 equity) can control $10,000 in currency. It's necessary to control a larger volume of currency because price changes are measured in very small increments. For example, 1 EUR/USD pip is 0.0001. So an increase of 100 pips (a price increase of 0.0100) in your standard account would net a gain of $1,000. It's important to understand that Forex trading is a zero sum game, meaning that if one person makes money, another person loses money. This makes Forex trading a little bit more like playing poker than trading stocks; however, the upside can be much greater then the stock market.
If you're totally confused at this point check out the Babypips website. They have a great Forex tutorial.
When I first learned about the Forex market I had dreams of becoming a successful day trader. Then I came to some realizations:
#1. Although the Forex Market is open 24 hours 5 days a week, the best trading times are during the London and New York markets. I'm on the US east coast so the London market starts at 3AM (while I'm sleeping) and the New York market trades 8am-5pm (when I'm at work).
#2. Who wants to spend their entire day glued to a computer waiting for a trade signal?
#3. 90% of Forex traders lose money in the long run - am I really smarter than 90% of traders?
That was disappointing...then I learned about Expert Advisors. Expert Advisors (EA) is a program that is run on the Metatrader 4 platform (used by many brokers such as IBFX). The computer program (or script) uses indicators, entry points, stop losses, etc...basically everything that a technical trader would manually look for. The EA runs 24/5 on either a continually running PC or a Virtual Personal Server (highly recommended) and opens and closes trades as it sees fit. Think about it- you're at work, sleeping, or at your local bar and the EA is making money for you!! It's definitely an exciting concept but finding an EA that actually works is far less exciting. I'm going to share my experiences, good and bad, to help you in your quest for cash.
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