I've had another profitable week of trading with the Forex Autopilot EA. I closed approximately 340 pips on my live account this week ($340). That's an 11% return on my original $3,000 deposit.
The FAP closed 7 trades this week for a total of 165 pips (5x25 and 2x20). The remainder of my profit was made from manual trades that I placed using my strategy described in last week's post. I have realized that I cannot run this EA totally "hands off" in my live trading account. I can't help making easy money when I get the opportunity. Because of this reason I have decided to run a demo account through the same broker, starting with the same capital, and running the same EA settings. Each week I will post both my live results and demo results. That will give us a truly "hands off" look at what this EA can do.
The EUR/USD hit new heights last week which made me nervous because of the EA's preference to take long positions. I actually turned the EA off for about 12 hours until the market made a correction. Unfortunately during Thursday night it rebounded and I entered a buy at 1.5923 and the market dropped significantly. I placed a manual hedge buy at 1.5848 on Friday AM. I'm currently sitting on a combined drawdown (manual and FAP trade) of approximately 184 pips. I'm not overly concerned and may either break even or possibly profit on both trades. Last I checked the US ecomomy didn't rebound over the weekend :-)
A frequent visitor to the site, Peter (fxisland on the comment thread), created a spreadsheet that calculates return based on inputted winning %, avg win, avg loss, etc. Thanks Peter! The Excel spreadsheet can be downloaded here.
I have posted this week's live account statement below. Another blog visitor, Fawzi, has generously shared his FAP results which can be downloaded here.
I have noticed through the comment thread that some of you may not be running the FAP on a virtual private server (VPS). A VPS is a subscription service that allows you to have a server-based operating system that runs 24/7 and guarantees nearly 100% uptime. I use VPS Land and pay $20 a month for the service. I originally was running my EA's off of a laptop which eventually froze up one day while I was at work and cost me some real money. The VPS allows me to access the same MT4 platform from any computer with an internet connection. Ck Owyong has a wonderful tutorial on setting up a VPS here.
I have also noticed that there is some confusion between the Forex Autopilot by Markus Leary, the Forex Autopilot by Mark Copeland, and the Forex Killer by Andreas Kirchberger. Markus Leary's version is that product that I've been testing. Copeland is offering another EA which I have not tested. Kirchberger created a tool for generating signals. This is not an automated system and is to be used in conjunction with you other technical and fundamental indicators. I have purchased the Forex Killer but never spent a significant amount of time with it. My focus is on automated trading as I don't really have time to manually trade. I have heard some good things about the Forex Killer and have heard some bad things about Copeland's Forex Autopilot; however, I encourage you to do your own testing and make your own mind up.
Cheers!
Craig
Past Forex Autopilot Updates:
Forex Autopilot Performance Update 4/11/08
Forex Autopilot Update 4/4/08Forex Autopilot Independent Review
Posts
32 comments:
As I write this my two demo accounts are both down. One is short for a loss of $900 and the other is long for a loss of nearly $400.
I've got the universal autopilot since I couldn't activate it and maybe I downloaded a bum copy. LOL
I know it's too soon to throw in the towel on my specific copy but that's not a very good start.
Will let them do their thing for as long as I can and take it from there.
Hi Newtrader,
This is a particularly difficult time to be in the EUR/USD as we are so close to psychological resistance at 1.600
I don't think the EA is "aware" of this fact.
I was down "real cash" over $1200 on Friday. The loss has currently been reduced to about -$320 as the pairs have retraced Friday's significant drop.
IMO, you have to be conservative when choosing lot size with regard to account size. I was way too aggressive (1.0) lot on when I started with my $5000 account but lucked out and gained $2400 in 5 good trading days.
At $7400, (account size) I reduced my lot size to .5
Had I not done this, I would have been down over $2400 thus erasing my gain at (one point) on Friday.
If you are going to leave it alone, I've learned this system requires adequate funding and proper leverage to weather large draw downs in order to stay in the game long enough to pick up the winning trades.
You could be in the same trade for several days or weeks till the EA closes the deal in profit. During certain conditions I've seen it open and close 3-4 profitable trades per day.
I am trying to run it hands off but will either reduce my lot size again or add funds to my account.
Friday's DD was a walk in the park compared to what is possible.
Over the years I learned you have to have a strategy. If you believe the story, this EA doesn't encourage strategy or MM. This approach or "non-approach" is personally very difficult as it causes me to break ingrained rules I learned the hard way.
The EA does a very good job during certain conditions. Overall I've been very impressed. There is something very seductive about waking up with a larger account than you went to bed with. I think we are all in the process of learning the best way to use it. I will of course be modifying my approach as I get a better feel for optimising its results.
Jim
On the positive side of my particular negative trades, I'd rather experience the negative aspects of these possibilities now rather than be surprised later on a live account.
I do hope to experience the "go to sleep wake up richer" feeling as it sounds like it may be even better than sex.
I have to resist the temptation of running two more demo accounts on my remaining two computers (for a total of 4).
I think that may border on OCD.
Thanks for all the excellent info. Jim, and everyone else!
I have been trading for a few days using EA on a demo account and I love it. I can't wait to use my real cash. Right now I am using 1 lot size on $3,000, would I do this in real life? No! I would back down the lot size to .1 to manage risk.
Since I downloaded the software on Sunday night my account as type is at $3,993 with Equity of $3,713. I am -$290 on a trade placed ealier today. So had I managed the account like a sane person I would be up but not as much of course.
For EA to work I must agree with others on this blog. You have to have the equity to ride out draw downs. And you have to learn to walk away from your computer and trust EA (the hardest part of all), and make you money.
I tried something a little different....I have had good experience in the past trading the EURJPY...so I said to myself why don't I try to use this EA with that along with the EURUSD...and here is what I have so far using a Demo account Click Here it is a PDF document so you will have to have a PDF viewer to read it. I do not usually look into programs such as these...but for some reason..this caught my eye. I am going to be opening up another forex account specifically for this EA and see what comes up it with real money...this system does have some pretty hefty drawdowns...I was almost $600 in the hole a few times but they always bounce back and closed for a profit... Since I am a software developer by trade it has inspired me to create a few EA's of my own of a few systems that I use reguarly and have helped me create a small fortune the past couple of years.
Hi Dave, Thanks for your comment. Just to confirm- you are running your custom EA on EURJPY and the Forex Autopilot on EURUSD? I've heard that the FAP doesn't run well with other EA's - are you having any problems? Also, would you be willing to share your EA so others might test it?
Craig
Craig,
Thanks for the reply, I am using Forex Autopilot on both the EURJPY and EURUSD at the same time and so far no problems have seemed to arise. I am currently looking converting some of the systems I have been using in the past to EA's...which are mainly position trading systems...which are in a much longer time frame -- (i.e. 1 Week chart) however when that will be I am not sure could be 1 - 2 months...would I be willing to share with a few for beta testing most definitely...
Hi guys.
The latest trade my possible lemon copy placed is a buy at 1.6010. I'm new, but even I realize that a TP at 1.6030 ain't going to happen anytime soon on that one.
I'm really starting to think I got a lemon copy. LOL.
(Running Autopilot Universal default settings on two forexte demos on identical computers with different processor speeds and different amounts of memory. First acc. currently at approx. $2000 loss and this one with the long at 1.6010 probably soon to follow - currently -$410.)
I'd also be very interested in beta testing your EA Dave.
Thanks everyone!
Newtrader - The EA placed long positions above 1.6000 on both my live and demo accounts. I closed the trade in my manual account at -17 and placed a manual short. I will let the demo account run. The EA doesn't realize that there is a psychological resistance at 1.6000. Be careful when you get close to that resistance. I've been using my strategy of placing a pending sell limit to trigger if my long position takes profit near 1.6000. This strategy has been working for me as I've closed around 150 pips so far this week (with a profitable trade floating).
Dave - I misunderstood but very interesting results so far. I believe the spread on the EURJPY is higher than EURUSD which changes things a bit (maybe use a smaller t/p?). Keep us posted on your results. Are you running the EA's on the same MT4 platform?
I am running the same EA's on the same MT4 platform. An you are also right with the spreads...which is something I definitely need to consider. Most of my trading until recently has been mostly on longer timeframes where the spread for the most part is not a real important factor for me...when you are dealing in a 1 min timeframe that can definitely eat up your profits if you spreads are not good...especially for the crosses (i.e. EURJPY) So we will see if this will actually work in the real world trading arena...
Thanks Craig.
If you can, since I'm thick, ...I mean new, can you explain the "pending sell limit" thing.
Sounds like something all of us should be using with this EA, and otherwise.
When you're ready to quit your day job and start charging for education/signals, I'm onboard that's for sure!
I've found fxinsights to be another great bunch of guys, but they don't do technical trading.
Between here and there, I should make my first million by next year! LOL.
Considering my 401K lost 7% last quarter I'm just happy to be in the black! I'm learning just like everybody else.
Here's my strategy with the "pending sell limit order":
If the FAP has placed a buy at say 1.5950 and my t/p is 1.5975 I do not want it to initiate a new buy when the existing trade closes at 1.5975 (because it's too close to the resistance). To stop it from initiating a new buy I will place a pending sell limit order. To do this on IBFX I open a new order, then click the dragdown box to "pending order", order type "sell limit", make the "at price" your current buy order t/p (1.5975 in my example), and set the t/p at say 1.5925. When your current buy closes at 1.5975 the pending order will be triggered. The FAP will not open a new position if one is already open (manual or FAP initiated). That way you can wait for the price to go down to where you take profit on your sell order (1.5925) before it opens another buy. I have done this a few times for 60+ pip profits. Then you can let the FAP ride the price back up until you get close to that danger zone again.
Let me know if I lost you...
Craig, I thought so, but at this stage I needed it broken down to be sure as my interpretations are not always spot on.
Thanks again!
Hi Dave,
Thanks for sharing and your insights. Your statement is very interesting. Here's what I've noticed after a quick look:
You are trading mini lots. Your demo broker is using 5-digit prices. Your Take Profit is 25 ticks.
With my demo on Apari, I only had 1 trade during April 22nd 04:00 to 05:00. My demo's chart time is London time. Please advise your demo's chart time basis.
If it is the same, then you had 3 trades with EUR/USD during 04:00 hour.
You had many more trades (9), than I (5), with Euro/USD on April 22nd. I had:
04:13 to 10:17 +20 pips
15:54 to 16:17 +20 pips
16:43 to 16:53 +20 pips
17:28 to 17:57 +20 pips
18:09 pending buy @ 1.6009 entry
Now I'm wondering if this EA performs better with a broker that uses 5-digit pricing. Very, very interesting.
Also, would like to be on your list for testing any EAs you develop.
Thanks!
All,
Dave's statement may have triggered an assessment that using a 5-digit broker is better. His trades closed out very quickly. It's only a 2-day sampling, but worth keeping an eye on.
Please compare to your 4-digit account.
We may have stumbled onto something here. Am I looking at the comparison wrong?
Sorry, another post. As I analyze Dave's statement more...
Since he is trading with 5-digits (past the decimal point), his take profit is only 2.5 pips when compared to what we are doing. His lot size is one full lot.
His setting is for take profit at 25 ticks, thus 2.5 pips.
Since it's one full lot, the value is still substantial when all of the wins are totaled.
Is this a better way to trade this EA?? It is if we are all worried about prolonged positions and massive drawdowns.
The drawback is that if the market goes against you, is also magnified. In other words, if the market goes against your position 2.5 pips, it would be equal to the average win. Since it triggers on a 1-minute chart, it does make some sense that small gains/losses would apply.
His statement also displays a pending position entered at 1.60100, with take profit @ 1.60125 - which has since been a winner.
I am now confident that my assement is correct. What a great revelation!
Comments please.
I think there are 2 important questions with trading this EA with a 5-digit broker.
1) If the entry doesn’t advance 2.5pips right away, draw-down can be massive, in dollar amount.
Additionally, if news or announcements hit while in a trade, slippage can be massive in terms of dollars.
2) The likelihood that an entry advances 2.5 pips right away is of course much higher than likihood of 25 pips.
Risk versus reward now has to be calculated. If it does not advance 2.5 right away, what kind of pain can we tolerate?
Does the EA work with a stop-loss of, say, 5 pips?
Would reducing lot size/leverage and allowing more room with a stop-loss the way to go?
Very interesting.
fxisland - Any thoughts on whether this correction will last? I'm sure a number of visitors (including myself) are sitting on some significant drawdown right now.
Right now would probably be a good time to set the FAP loose and catch the uptrend. Unfortunately you can't set two FAP at the same time (unless you have multiple accounts).
Hey Craig,
Here's my assessment.
USD strength propelled by a few of things.
Verbal hint by U.S. that they may be finished lowering rates, as next FOMC meeting ahead.
Verbal "correction" by Eurpoean Central Bank spokesman that stated his comments that they would tighten (raise interest rate), were taken out of context.
European data release last night had negative impact on Euro.
Down move had broken support of1.5711, which is a 100% retracement level and now stalled at 1.618 retrace fib 1.5637.
The current area is near/at a significant support level which is the 23.6% fib (retrace) on the daily chart of last significant up move. I consider 1.5627/1.5637 as significant support.
From a fundamental point, the U.S. data from this morning was also negative USD, which should stall any further spike down for the moment. On the agenda is tonight's British data release which is forecasted negative Pound.
Last night's reaction (German data) was due to Germany's large impact on euro zone.
Would think about hedging against further negative if EUR/USD falls below 1.5727 support. Place manual opposite order to lock in current loss.
fxisland - Regarding your last paragraph...did you mean to say 1.5627? I'm assuming that's what you meant and I did place a pending sell for that price. Thanks for the advice. I'm not overly concerned with my current 295 pip floating loss considering I've closed over 1000 pips since I started.
Just some musings,
What a hairy day!
I have a floating a loss of half of my gains right now. I've transferred additional funds into my account as I believe the DD could get worse.
Rumors abound and everyone's nervous so I'd rather be prepared.
I've placed a limit order short at 1.5630 to halt further losses to my account.
I played futures on grains, metals and sugar in the 80's and the unexpected always seemed to happen. I was modestly successful in that I threw in the towel before losing all the money in my account.
I quit the futures game because I became too emotionally involved.
It was much more difficult back then in that execution was all done through a broker you had to call, wait on hold, (sweat) and you never knew what your fill would be. It could go limit against you and it was very easy to get killed. Broker commissions of $150 to $200 per round turn didn't help either as it discouraged hedging. The whole clunky process made money management very difficult. Still, the exhilaration of a win was wonderful. The agony of defeat was --- agony. Waiting through through the night after the market closed for a possible limit down at open made sleep difficult to say the least.
This is the first time I've played the Forex market. It feels very similar but the positives are huge. I am most impressed by the liquidity and direct control.
They didn't really have mini's when I was involved in futures so it was much more difficult to control risk. Most of the time you didn't know what the real time prices were unless you called the brokerage, entered your code and listened to their phone quotes.
Sometimes what you heard would make your heart stop. That was state of the art!
I Thank Craig again for encouraging me to limit my lot size. I'm still in profit and am not too worried about this decline. However, I'm mentally prepared for the possibility of drops to:
1.5550 and if that doesn't hold,
1.5350 could also come into play.
We will get another opportunity to ride the wave at the end of the month when the EA exits the trade.
It seems we have to look at monthly closes to fairly evaluate this system.
Jim
I had another thought (as if the above was not enough)
I increased my account to $15,000.
I decided to move my sell stop down to 1.5622 but increased the lot size for this "possible trade" to 1.
If it drops through this current support (1.563x), in addition to preventing significant further loss on my .5 lot position, I may actually make some money back if its a prolonged drop. I placed a stop loss on that short above at 1.5710.
No TP, I'll decide on that later after I see what happens.
I'm still trying to get my fast moving leveraged trading chops back in shape.
Any thoughts or advice?
Jim
So much for leaving things alone-
Craig,
My apology, I meant to say 1.5627. Running out the door at the time, what a difference that is!
All,
Pair respected the support of 1.5637/27 and stuck in range between fibs of 1.5710 (100% retrace) and 1.5727 (1.618 retrace). Market basically waiting for British data. Volume doesn't increase until approx 01:00 EST.
In view of some posters here being in live trades, We may want to go to a live chat to guide situation. Please post a site we can use, if interested. I normally get on about midnight EST. The weekend is ahead however, and we must consider strategy in an attempt to limit/hedge any losing positions that can grow even more.
Jim,
I, too, am from the early years and can indentify with you on all of those disadvantages. Add to that, brokers that hunted down our day trade stops and we were really pioneers with arrows in our backs.
I also started in the currency futures market which was much less volatile. When I switched to Forex, it was like the difference between little league baseball and the major leagues. Not that good traders can't make money in the Futures, but the spikes and swings are dramatically different.
We also went through the period when the Japanese government verbally intervened in an attempt to stabilze the Yen. Our positions often were dragged for negative 50 pips our more!
Looks like you have a pending hedge, which I feel is a good idea.
Using the fapcal speadsheet that Craig has posted:
With your new balance of $15,000, you may want to limit any loss to 100 pips (max. exposure) but with average loss of 60 pips (manual intervention).
This limits your exposure to 3.3% and 2% respectively.
Your leverage is about 3.3:1
If winning % is 90% - avg win 20 pips - avg loss 60 pips = 173% ROI year trading .5 lots.
_________________________________
This EA has yet to demonstrate an ability to exit trades before it gets unbearable. We're talking -300 pips or more.
Fawzi has indicated that he noticed some sort of advice (in booklet?)that it works better with a 5-digit pricing/broker. I think our investigation will result in the fact that we prefer to take our lumps quicker with a 5-digit trade. The most glaring downside risk is massive slippage. Staying on the sidelines during data realease would therefore be prudent.
The forex market is very volatile. Witness 5 or 15-min candlesticks with 30+ pip swings. How much this would affect trading small ticks with 5-digit broker remains to be seen. It does however impact trading as posted herein with 4-digit nevertheless.
I've never been a believer in trading without a stop-loss. As mentioned, during a great trend as EUR/USD has been in, it's easy to program/adjust an EA to stay in a buy until it reaches profit.
As opposed to manual trading, this and most EAs don't recognize support and resistance.
For every 5 or 6 consecutive wins, it got stuck in a long with massive drawdown and trade period.
I think that an EA with a true trailing stop would be much safer. We are easily enarmored with the 95% + winning ratio of this and other EAs. Just have to disect which are better for our individual risk tolerance.
Sorry for the long post.
EUR/USD broke support of 1.5627 during Europena session on weak data. Any hedges are now in play.
Down move bounced at 1.5554 and previous support of 1.5627 now acts as resistance.
Next support level 1.5520, which is the 161.8% retrace fib from up move 4-18 noon to 4-22 16:00.
Here's a link to an article on hedging. I am not endorsing broker but think it's good reading. You'll see that pair broke trend line. BTW, their hedge example is for holding an orignial short.
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/trading_reports/hedging_range_trades/EURUSD_to_Retrace_Before_Trend_1209101252582.html
Hi Fx-
I believe the only time the EA exits is at the end of the month. I think that is the only "internal" formula that finally terminates a trade. This is not to say it invalidates the EA as a valid system. This may have all been worked out mathematically / odds for and against, and is all part of the total system that creates ultimate positive returns. I however am not particularly arithmetically inclined so I always need help in that area.
This seems to work remarkably well in an up-trending market free of excessive volatility. The end of the month is "the stop loss." It then hopefully recovers massive DD's at through the following month or months as the major trend returns, or it picks up positive retraces after the slaughter. Thus small lots for adequately funded accounts are an absolute necessity.
My concern is a major trend change and how this EA would handle down markets. It does initiate shorts and but favors longs. I don't know enough about programming to determine if this EA can recognise a major trend change.
"People" are chattering about this finally being "THE" reversal of the EURUSD. I've heard "that" all before in other difficult volatile markets at many during my time trying to get trading right.
I don't "think" the U.S. economy has healed itself and is thus off to the races. However, in trading, perception is often reality long before anyone actually know what's really going on.
I would be very interested in discussing strategy. I work best in a bulletin board type format. I've only "chat roomed" a few times in my life and it speeds by me too quickly, and its often difficult for me to be anywhere at appointed times.
Lets all stay in touch. Now that I'm back in this type market, I'd like to make the best of it and appreciate any guidance along the way. I already find myself becoming obsessed and that is not always good.
The more I meddle the more damage I can do-
Thanks in advance for all help from those posting.
Jim
Thanks Jim,
I think you are correct in your assumption that this EA's stop-loss is end of month. There's no edvidence to the contrary for 4-digit trading, hence my interest with Dave's 5-digit trading.
I will start a demo with forex.com or another broker with 5-digit pricing next Monday.
I prefer to manual trade the bulk of my live money and wanted to explore the EAs. I can't see being stuck for days or weeks in a losing trade while other trades are missed with this EA. Perhaps there still is a way to still use this while maintaining sound money management.
I pulled my losing demo long position (minus 400p) last night at 04:40 PST. just to see if EA will enter a short.
It did 4 minutes later at 04:44 West Coast time @ 1.5592. There seems to have been some slippage as opening price was 1.5598 for that candlestick.
Position fell 74 pips behind at its max. and has since come back down to -13.
This EA must monitor a long-term chart for trend. If pair continues downward path, will EA follow? We shall see.
Traders are exiting or hedging ahead of weekend and we are seeing pre-close sells. This can be accute since there is a perceived major trend change. Traders in Europe are the last group to jump in Monday and don't want to be caught behind any major spike down, against their longs.
As with specialist that trade opening of sessions, there are those jumping in now to shave a few pips prior to closing.
Have a good weekend all.
I'm pretty sure you can trade around the EA as long as you don't have opened positions when it's ready to do it's thing.
I've been in some draw downs, did multiple trades below the EA and it continued to function, opening and closing trades after I closed
my trades before the market came back within range of the EA's take profit.
Most of the trades I made did not put me in a better position. Had I left things alone, I would have ultimately been several hundred dollars ahead of where I am now. That's not to say one shouldn't intervene. I could not have slept without the short hedge I placed at 1.5622 on Thursday night. Had the market continued south after 1.5550 support, I would have been rewarded.
I should have taken profit at that point but was unsure it would hold. Thus, I allowed it to bite me in the a** by exiting today when the EURUSD rallied, only to re-enter a new short 1.0 lot at 1.5622 again (12:50 EST) after I saw a classic H&S on the 1m.
I'm in profit on this particular trade as of 3pm EST but am hesitant to TP and get out in case there is a gap down on Sunday evening.
It's all coming back to me now. Constantly checking the numbers, thinking, calculating, and worrying. Having the feeling everything I do could be the right move, or the wrong move. I love it and hate it. Currently I'm a bit stressed about the whole thing and I'm not even at a loss yet.
That's what attracted me to the FAPS. Theoretically, I don't have to look, worry or care.
Now I find myself back in a game I haven't trained adequately for.
Need to get back in shape-
Jim
"Constantly checking the numbers, thinking, calculating, and worrying".
_________________________________
I'm sending Craig a trading log spreadsheet. Hopefully he can post a link on his next update page. It helps keep track of trades and maximum drawdown. We can then review history to ascertain a stop-loss setting.
Also on spreadsheet is my demo result and amount of DD during 2-week period. It is missing trades during period I was stuck in losing positions. I made changes to trades I pulled manually and inputted results if positions were left alone.
We can share DD results and calculate success ratio and return based on using a stop-loss.
If you have trouble activating your copy of FAP, try inputting a 0(zero) for the "key". If it is working, you should get the smiley face at the top right corner of your chart.
I tried several times to activate my copy and finally drew a 0 as my code that actually worked. It could be a universal code or something.
Chris
Post a Comment