Greetings! This will be a short update as there is not much to talk about. I closed out the losing trade on my live account for about a 400 pip loss this past week. I decided to remove the EA from my live account until I see how my demo account does in this volatile market.
My demo account closed out it's long position at 1.6009 for a 385 pip loss on 5/1/08. Interesting I actually lost more on my live account due to a hedge that I closed out as the market temporarily rebounded. To my dismay the EA opened another long at 1.5625 which is currently floating a 175 pip loss.
I'm not going to post the actual trade details this week as I've already detailed the only trades closed.
Thus far the results during a downtrend have been weak to say the least. The EA catches pips easily on an uptrend. The EA also did well in a market trading in range (with a little help). I will continue to run the EA on the demo and hope that Markus Leary continues to fine-tune the EA.
Craig
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18 comments:
For a very long time my opened positions have been reaching -20 before +20 in profits. This forex autopilot system is really great except it consistently trades in the wrong direction. Is there a way to automatically pick opposite positions of forex autopilot?
There's no way to make that adjustment. If you catch a good uptrend you'll find that it is making trades in the right direction. In general it makes significantly more buys then sells which means that it is not performing well with a declining EURUSD.
read my posts from the last update
It looks like we're all seeing similar performance..pretty good longs and weak shorts. There are one or two open questions for me at the moment though.
For example, the claimed succesful trade percentage is 96% (which may be true). How are the remaining 4% handled though I wonder?. At what point does the software close out a trade (I've seen one with a drawdown of several hundred pips).
Does anyone know from experience or correspondence with the developer?
Mark,
The software will close out a losing trade (actually any floating trades) on the first of each month. The win % might be 94% but if the 6% losses equates to the same amount of pips as your 94% profits then it's not a great system.
Craig
Mike,
Great post! I agree that with some understanding of Forex markets you could use this as a tool set to trade (long/short only) in the direction you believe the market is heading.
Craig
I have a newer understanding now. I've been reading posts that state MetaQuotes provides dealers with a plugin for their servers that allow them to hunt for stops and delay order execution. I'm not sure about the validity of this, but I'll leave a link to a forum post.
ForexFactory.com
Now here is where the pieces of the puzzle come together. I followed the directions on the Autopilot website that suggested I use ForexTE as my broker. They are simply a middleman that leads to Forex.com(Gain Capital). I received a phone call from someone at forexte asking me if I had setup my forex autopilot software. This is a big red flag for me. A broker promoting an EA? Sounds like they are looking to line their own pockets, not mine. I will officially not use this again, and I'm considering switching brokers. Gain Capital has been nice in their customer service, but I did see some failures in BuyStop orders I had placed. They've recently upgraded to a Velocity4x server and it seems much more responsive. I'm still evaluating.
Anyways, I'm continuing my own EA development now. I've adapted the idea that I will not place any stops or profits in my orders so that the broker cannot know my goals. The EA handles it all internally. I'm starting to think that autopilot watches you from afar via your key. Beware big brother autopilot :P
Craig,
Yes, that's what I'm concerned about I must admit. I'm aware of the 1st of month close out but wondered whether there were other exit features that could kick in under certain conditions.
Obviously at the front of my mind is whether the use of a stop is the best approach with this system, particularly with the weak EurUSD market we have at the moment.
Hi FxIsland:
You said:
Fairly recent developments with Fractals and Heiken Ashi candlesticks (HAS) has been of great assistance to me.
I found the candle sticks indicator but am not sure I've attached it correctly. Seems to sit ontop of my existing candlesticks.
Can you direct me to a source of additional info on this and fractuals?
Thanks in advance if you see this.
Jim
Hey Jim,
To hide candlestick, click line chart icon. It's the button just to the right of candlestick icon.
If you want to get rid of line graph (usually lime green), go to charts, properties, colors, and select none for line graph.
Here's one link to HAS:
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/04/092204.asp
I don't know if I saved a link on fractals. Will post if found.
Cheers
Thanks Fx-
I will check it out. Also finding a wealth of information at Forex Factory.
I've been experimenting with Nel's "The 4 hour Strategy" and
Jacko's anti hedging system.
Promising stuff!
Jim
After giving this whole EA thing more thought and considering performance, concluded:
1) As mentioned previously, in my humble opinion, these EAs seem to be trend-based systems.
2) Trading without a stop-loss is not palatable and dangerous.
3) There are new ones coming on market every month. While we've witnessed an enormous trend market, these developers are all claiming great returns. Choppy market sets in, then what?
4) Sorry no holy grail here to find.
5) Let's try a semi-automatic EA.
6) Found one that makes sense to me and testing with demo EA. Since I am a user of Fibonacci, it appeals to me as it is more of a money management EA that adds lots as move breaks support & resistance fib levels. This is done with profits from the current position.
6A) Must identify trend on your own first, then program which direction to allow trades. I would look at first hour of a session (European, U.S. or Japan) or long-term chart.
6B) It uses a stop-loss!!
6C) First order of biz is to figure out what time frame it works best in. Testing on 5-min Euro and Yen as well as 15-min Sterling and CHF.
6C) Ability to turn a 100-pip move into several hundred pips.
If anyone interested, I'll suggest to Caig that he post it in a separate thread.
Cheers
Count me in.
I have also concluded that EA's may be useful in trading certain markets during specific conditions. However, its clear that a human being needs to be able to identify those setups and choose the correct tools to assist in making better decisions.
I am interested in sharpening my trading skills and can certainly see the value of various indicators and the possible use of EA's as tools to improve and help to manage one's own trades. With proper MM stratagies and the ability to recognise certain conditions we can more likely tip the odds in our favor.
At this point, it looks like we still need to be "involved" in the trades we enter.
Take care everyone and keep in touch!
Jim
The MM EA does not use fib breakage to enter or exit as originally thought. It just adds lots based on teh "golden ratio" of 1,2,3,5,8,etc. This is nothing new as I've seen this with a card gambling software 10 years ago.
It adds 1 lot when up by 20 pips and moves stop-loss to 10 pips. If new lot stops out, both positions are exited at break-even.
If we agree with its pricinple strategy, then we automate it versus possible human error as well as lag time doing it manually.
I've only used with short-tem charts and will apply to 1-hour next. The short term application had too much activity for me, always in trade.
The developers charge $99/month to use their suite of tools. They are also some sort of broker identity, thus beware as promoting EAs that trade often can equate to a lot of money for them. Not that we would be forced to open an account with them, but there may be some sort of fine print where they might be referring broker if we use their tools.
In the end, if I make money with their tool(s), I don't mind.
Since my group trades manually, this EA may be useful. I envision possible use with breakout trades.
From what I've seen, a move must advance 20 pips, without going back 10 pips, just to reach "stage 2". If it adds a second time, with 2 lots, this will result in profit.
I caught 2 pairs in good trend last night, as monitored with HAS on 30-minute (as set-up scenario).
They made about $650 each starting with 1 lot. Trick is when to turn it on and close it down. Also is 10pip s/l too small? It can lead to several $100 losses.
Unusal tally example:
2 wins (including added lots)
13 losses
6 break-even
Must discount last night as Brits had important data release.
Keep you informed.
Jim, and all,
If you want a free EA that has some history that competed in championship:
http://www.mql4.com/users/vdiddy38
I back tested on EUR/USD (+8%) & USD/CHF (+10.5%) from Jan 1st.
Developer is pro forex trader and has since tweaked EA to avoid larger DD. It also uses MM and S/L.
Doesn't trade much and applied to 1-hour charts. Fit for those that don't like rapid fire trading EAs. LOL.
Cheers
Hi guys.
I opened a Crown forex demo account and was wondering what settings to use in FAPS since Crown doesn't use lots, but volume.
Crown I guess is more like an ECN and they have 1pip spread on the majors.
Also, if anyone knows what Lots Risk Reductor setting should be as you add lots.
For example, autopilot doing quite well when I use 1 lot with Lots Risk Reductor at 1, but if I increase the # of lots from 1 to 10 would I also increase the Lots Risk Reductor to 10 to keep the same performance, or would I leave it at 1?
Have you figured out a way to run this EA on more than one pair at a time? I opened up 8 pairs and put this EA on them expecting to see various trades open and close and once a position is opened no more will open from a different pair.
thoughts?
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